Home prices were down again in May, but a few regions of the country experienced a ever-slight uptick in prices from the previous month, giving officials at the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO) a chance to be cautiously optimistic in the press release announcing the numbers.

"It is very hard to draw conclusions from a one-month number, especially in these uncertain times; but the numbers in the Pacific, East and West North Central Divisions may be good signs," said OFHEO Director James B. Lockhart in the release.

Nationwide, the OFHEO report showed home prices in May were down 0.3 percent from April and down 4.8 percent from May 2007. The three Census Divisions mentioned by Lockhart were the only ones out a total of nine that did not report a monthly decrease.

The Pacific Division, which includes Hawaii, Alaska, Washington, Oregon and California, reported a 0.3 percent increase in home prices from April to May, although the region documented a 14.5 percent decline in home prices from May 2007. The East North Central Division, which includes Michigan, Wisconsin, Illinois, Indiana and Ohio, reported a 0.1 percent monthly increase, but still a 3.7 percent year-over-year decrease in home prices. The West North Central Division, which includes North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota, Nebraska, Iowa, Kansas and Missouri, reported no monthly change in home prices.

It will be interesting to see how these home price numbers correlate to the Q2 foreclosure numbers RealtyTrac will be releasing Friday. We'll be posting those numbers as soon as they are available.

U.S. foreclosure activity in June decreased 3 percent from the previous month but was still up 53 percent from June 2007, according to the RealtyTrac U.S. Foreclosure Market Report released today. The 3 percent decrease may lead some to speculate that the upward trend in foreclosure activity may be nearing an end, but as RealtyTrac CEO James J. Saccacio pointed out in a statement, the year-over-year change is a more indicative number of the overall trend.

"The year-over-year increase of more than 50 percent indicates we have not yet reached the top of this foreclosure cycle," he said.

In fact, the RealtyTrac report has shown month-to-month decreases in previous months, even during the dramatic run-up in foreclosure activity that has occurred over the past year and a half: in February 2008, November 2007, September 2007, June 2007, April 2007, and February 2007.

What may be a better argument -- although certainly not an ironclad case -- that the foreclosure surge is starting to run out of steam is the trend over the past 18 months in YOY percentage changes, broken down by type of foreclosure filing. As can be seen in the chart below, the default and auction categories experienced double- and triple-digit YOY percentage increases for much of 2007. But the increases in those categories started to slow down in 2008. Meanwhile, REO (bank repossession) activity actually decreased on a YOY basis in January and February of 2007 but gradually started to gain momentum in the second half of 2007, and increases in REOs have far outpaced the increases in defaults and auctions in all six months of 2008.

One could argue that this chart shows that the bulk of the properties that were at risk for foreclosure have migrated through the process and are now being repossessed by the foreclosing lenders. There is not a continued massive surge in defaults and auction notices, so once the lenders have disposed of their REO inventory, the real estate market can start to return to normal. On the other hand, some might argue that many properties are still at risk for falling into foreclosure, but the default notices against those properties may have been delayed by artificial means -- for example laws in Colorado, Maryland and Massachusetts requiring lenders to give homeowners more time before initiating foreclosure. Those artificial means may just temporarily be forestalling another wave of defaults that we'll see sometime in the coming months.

We'd like to hear if you buy into either of these theories or have another theory of your own that explains the foreclosure trends.

Foreclosure activity continued its upward climb in May, increasing on a year-over-year basis for the 29th consecutive month, according to the RealtyTrac U.S. Foreclosure Market Report released today. The report showed one in every 483 U.S. households received a foreclosure filing during the month, the highest monthly foreclosure rate since RealtyTrac began issuing its report in January 2005.

Bank repossessions (REOs) accounted for 28 percent of the total activity and the biggest increase among the three types of foreclosure filings tracked in the report. REOs were up 35 percent from the previous month and 158 percent from May 2007. Default notices increased 1 percent from the previous month and were up 35 percent year over year, while auction notices decreased 3 percent from the previous month but were still up 13 percent year over year.

View state-by-state data.

It's apparent from the report that a high inventory of foreclosures will continue to saddle the real estate market. But for how much longer? Does the slowing rate of increase in defaults and auctions represent a patch of blue sky in the midst of a torrential downpour of foreclosures? Let us know what you think.

The first quarter MBA National Delinquency Survey released today largely supports the findings of the RealtyTrac Q1 2008 U.S. Foreclosure Market Report released at the end of April, which found overall foreclosure activity increased 23 percent from the fourth quarter of 2007 and 112 percent from the first quarter of 2007.

That closely mirrored the trend in MBA’s foreclosure rate, which put the percentage of loans in the foreclosure process at 2.47 percent at the end of the first quarter, up 21 percent from the 2.04 percent reported in the fourth quarter of 2007 and up 93 percent from the 1.28 percent reported in the first quarter of 2007.

The trend lines are even closer when looking at the RealtyTrac first quarter foreclosure rate (0.515 percent of total housing units with a foreclosure filing during the quarter), which was up 21 percent from the fourth quarter of 2007 — exactly the same percentage increase as the MBA foreclosure rate — and up 109 percent from the first quarter of 2007.

The record-high delinquency rate reported by the MBA in the first quarter indicates that foreclosure activity has not peaked, which is also reflected in the numbers RealtyTrac has reported so far for the second quarter. The total number of properties with foreclosure filings in the RealtyTrac April report was the highest monthly total since RealtyTrac began issuing the report in January 2005.

State trends
The four states with the highest foreclosure rates in the RealtyTrac first quarter report — Nevada, California, Arizona and Florida — were also the four states identified in the MBA report as having the most severe foreclosure problems. Those four states accounted for 47 percent of the total foreclosure activity in the RealtyTrac report and 42 percent of the foreclosure starts in the MBA report.

Both the RealtyTrac and MBA reports identified Ohio and Michigan as states where foreclosure activity decreased in the first quarter. It’s too early to say that the lower foreclosure numbers in states such as Ohio and Michigan represent a light at the end tunnel for the battered real estate industry, but it’s certain that the continued surge in foreclosures in populous states such as Florida and California will cast a shadow over the entire U.S. housing market for several months and even years to come.

Over the past three months, my clients and I have presented nine contracts to pre-foreclosure, REO and short sale sellers. Out of those nine contracts, nine have been beat by better offers. In the Northern Seattle area there currently very few REO properties, and in terms of real short sales, I have seen under 10 that are decent over the past month. I wish I had the finesse to illustrate the how important it is to negotiate a Win/Win offer. I can simply say writing a contract for bottom dollars in the hope of catching a whale is only going to bring up a boot. The Seattle market is not what you see on the news, hear on the radio, or read in the paper in terms of the rest of the nation’s foreclosure woes. The money in this town has just shifted from buying retail to buying wholesale, and there are a lot of hungry wallets burning holes for positive equity investments.

Here are some things to keep in mind when investing in the Seattle market:

1. Land is an extremely limited resource in this city. Seattle did not experience the “urban sprawl” boom seen in so many other cities plagued with foreclosure woes.
2. The Seattle metro area has a strong economic foundation with many companies doing extraordinarily well due to international business.
3. Seattle has one of the most highly educated populations in the country.
4. Our median household income is about $72,000 annually — among the highest in the country.
5. Because of the lack of “urban sprawl” in Seattle we do not have the inventory of foreclosure homes that the rest of the country has. I say this all the time to my buyers, at auction there is a huge crowd competing over six to 10 properties. Even then these homes are being purchased at 20 percent less then market value.

So, if you want to beat the competition when it comes to an equity positive real estate investments do not think cheap, think Win/Win. It makes a transaction so much less of a nightmare, and in a few years you will have built yourself a great real estate portfolio in one of the best cities in the United States.   

Contact Nova Ukariha Shank or post comments below.

According to the RealtyTrac U.S. Foreclosure Market Report issued today, the total number of properties with foreclosure activity in April reached the highest level on a monthly basis since RealtyTrac began issuing the report in January 2005. Foreclosure filings were reported on 243,353 U.S. properties during the month -- certainly a big number, although only a tiny fraction of the nation's 126 million total housing units. Still, nearly a quarter million properties in one month can have a significant impact on a housing market that is registering about 5 million existing home sales for the entire year.

"Although only about 2 percent of households nationwide will be in some stage of foreclosure this year, these properties contribute to already bloated inventories of homes for sale, and put downward pressure on home values," said James J. Saccacio, chief executive officer of RealtyTrac. "Areas of California, Florida, Nevada and Arizona continue to be particularly hard-hit. Property tax bases are eroding, putting municipal budgets in peril. For example, the city council in Vallejo, California -- part of a metropolitan area with a foreclosure rate that ranked sixth highest in the nation in April - last week voted to have the city file for bankruptcy."

View full RealtyTrac report.

We'd like to know more about how foreclosures are affecting local housing markets across the country. To get the conversation started, we've asked some members of the RealtyTrac Agent Network to provide insight into their local markets in a series of blog posts on Foreclosure Pulse over the next few days. The first post is provided by Gloria Tate of Raso Realty, Inc., in Cape Coral-Fort Myers, Fla. -- where the foreclosure rate ranked fifth highest among the 230 metro areas tracked by the RealtyTrac report.

View Gloria Tate's post about the Cape Coral market.

Look for more local market perspectives coming soon and please post a comment on any of these posts if you have something to add, a question or a different perspective.

While foreclosure activity in the first quarter of 2008 was up on a year-over-year basis in 90 percent of the nation's 100 largest metropolitan areas, according to the RealtyTrac Q1 report issued today, there were a few notable exceptions that could prove to be a harbinger of hope for the nation's battered housing market. On the other hand, those exceptions could just turn out to be a source of false hope, perpetuated in part by short-term foreclosure solutions that are about as effective as a five-gallon bailing bucket on the sinking Titanic.

The notable exceptions included Detroit — a longtime posterchild for the foreclosure meltdown — and Philadelphia, along with a few other Pennsylvania metro areas. Foreclosure activity in Detroit was down nearly 4 percent from the first quarter of 2007, although the city's foreclosure rate still ranked No. 6 among the nation's 100 largest metropolitan areas. Philadelphia's foreclosure rate ranked No. 82, thanks in part to a 30 percent year-over-year decrease in foreclosure activity.

Dispatches from Detroit indicate that free-market forces may be the catalyst. The Detroit Free Press reported that "Detroit home sales shot up 30.8% in March, spurred by investors taking advantage of low prices on foreclosed properties." Detroit home prices have hit a low enough threshold to become appealing to bargain buyers and investors. That in turn allows lenders to start unloading foreclosure inventory, easing a heavy burden that has been weighing down the city's housing market.

Different forces may be at work in Philadelphia, helping that city's foreclosure rate remain relatively low. A moratorium on all foreclosure sales scheduled in April there has now been replaced by a pilot program that delays foreclosure proceedings on owner-occupied properties until the homeowner and lender meet in a "conciliation conference," according to the Philadelphia Business Journal. Foreclosure sales originally scheduled for April and May will be postponed until at least July.

Meanwhile, foreclosure activity continues to increase at a torrid pace in many of the now-familiar foreclosure hot spots: up 291 percent annually in Stockton, Calif., which posted the highest foreclosure rate among the 100 largest metro areas; up 134 percent in Las Vegas, No. 3 on the list; up 294 percent in Phoenix; and up 249 percent in Orlando.

View full Q1 2008 foreclosure report.

For the third month in a row U.S. foreclosure activity registered at more than 50 percent above the level it was at a year ago, according to the March RealtyTrac U.S. Foreclosure Market Report. And for the second month in a row, the number of bank repossessions, or REOs, was up more than 100 percent year over year.

The implication: while significantly more homeowners are falling into foreclosure, there is an even bigger increase in the number of homeowners already in the process who are losing their homes to foreclosure — whether through the typical foreclosure sale mechanism or whether by pre-empting the public foreclosure sale through what is called a deed in lieu of foreclosure.

In the latter case, the homeowner offers to convey ownership of the property to the foreclosing lender. The lender also has to agree to the DIL arrangement, which may involve clearing out other liens secured by the property. But that may be better than the alternative — a costly and lengthy process that will quite likely end with the bank repossessing the property anyway.

The year-over-year increase in bank repossessions was even more dramatic in some states: 619 percent in Arizona; 597 percent in New York; 557 percent in California; and 464 percent in Florida.

View full March report.

With a speech given today in Philadelphia, Sen. Hillary Clinton reinforced her standing as the presidential candidate with the most far-reaching and concrete proposals calling for government intervention to save homeowners from the sins of greed and bearing false witness that were rampant in mortgage lending over the past few years.

The payment for those sins is often foreclosure, but Clinton wants the government to become a Messianic figure for homeowners facing foreclosure — and by default also for many lenders who approved problem loans for those homeowners — by forgiving these sins and bearing the transgressions of malevolent mortgages that no other lender or buyer is willing to touch.

"That’s why I believe the Federal Housing Administration should also stand ready to be a temporary buyer — to purchase, restructure, and resell underwater mortgages," Clinton said in the speech at what was billed as the "Solutions for the American Economy" event.

Giving the FHA the ability to buy trouble mortgages would act as a safety net to legislation proposed by fellow Democratic Sens. Barney Frank of Massachusetts and Chris Dodd of Connecticut.

"The Frank-Dodd legislation would ... (set) up an auction system for mortgage companies that hold hundreds of thousands of these mortgages. Through this system, these companies could sell mortgages in bulk to banks and other buyers. The buyers would be willing to purchase these mortgages — and restructure them to make them affordable for families — because they know the government will guarantee them once they are refinanced," Clinton said, not long after setting up the problem by citing RealtyTrac's statistic of 2.2 million foreclosure notices filed in 2007, up 75 percent from 2006.

But because she doubts the sufficiency of this plan to help all homeowners, Clinton called on President Bush to form an "emergency working group on foreclosures" to step in and evaluate the plan along with her proposal to have the "government step in as a purchaser."

Clinton believes that her proposal to allow the FHA to purchase loans "would cost taxpayers nothing in the long run" because it would not create a new federal bureaucracy and would be designed to be "self-financing over time." Whether that is a realistic belief is questionable based on the tendency of government programs to overreach and overspend. 

The bottom-line question is this: Should government act as a savior willing to take on the foreclosures of the world, or should it take a more tough-love approach and let the market work through the consequences of its actions? Let us know what you think.

February foreclosure activity was down 4 percent from the previous month but still up 57 percent from February 2007, according to the latest RealtyTrac U.S. Foreclosure Market Report. So does the monthly decrease mean we've hit a ceiling of sorts for this cycle in terms of foreclosures?

Probably not.

The February monthly decrease is more likely a seasonal decrease helped along by a shorter-than-average month and the fact that January's numbers are often padded with some pent-up foreclosure activity from the holiday season. That premise is supported by looking at the numbers in February 2007, when U.S. foreclosure activity was down 6 percent from January. Foreclosure activity continued to climb for the remainder of that year.

The more important indicator is the year-over-year increase, which has been between 50 percent and 60 percent for both January and February. If you look back at the RealtyTrac monthly reports, activity has increased on a year-over-year basis every month since January 2006, the first month that YOY stats were available.

So the overall trend -- at least on a national basis -- is steadily upward. Eventually the bleeding will stop, and the fundamentals of a healthy real estate market will be restored. The million dollar question (or millions and millons of dollars if you're a really smart investor) is, when will that be? Will we see another series of three more lines that are all higher than the lines in the graph above, or will there be just one more year of rising foreclosures, or two? Let us know what you think.

View full February report.