Thursday, June 26, 2008 8:30 AM
Immediate Relief Nowhere to Be Found
posted by
joelc
Three top indices of economic health in the U.S. came out with negative reports this month, supporting the notion that the nation’s inventory of available properties — particularly the supply of properties in foreclosure — will remain elevated for at least the immediate future.
According to its latest report released Tuesday, Standard & Poor’s said home prices across the nation continued to fall in April 2008, with prices in all 20 metro areas it studies for the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices showing annual declines. Of those 20 metros, 13 of them posted record annual lows, and 10 of them reported double-digit declines.
“There might be some pockets of improvement, but on an annual basis the overall numbers continue to decline,” said David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P. The biggest decliners were Las Vegas and Miami, with 26.8 percent and 26.7 percent declines respectively. These areas were two of the fastest gainers during the boom of 2004-2005.
Also on Tuesday, The Conference Board released its monthly Consumer Confidence Index report, showing an almost eight point decline between its May measurement (58.1) and its June measurement (50.4) of consumer confidence nationwide.
In the group’s monthly release, Lynn Franco, Director of The Conference Board Consumer Research Center, said, "This month's Consumer Confidence Index is the fifth lowest reading ever. Consumers' assessment of present-day conditions continues to grow more negative and suggests the economy remains stuck in low gear. Perhaps the silver lining to this otherwise dismal report is that Consumer Confidence may be nearing a bottom."
In addition to a general negativity from consumers regarding the present state of the economy, the Board’s monthly Expectations survey concluded that consumers were pessimistic about business conditions improving over the next six months, and their outlook on the labor market was also negative.
Adding more insult to injury, the Commerce Department came out with its May report of new residential home sales on Wednesday, revealing a 2.5 percent decline from the revised number for April, and down 40.3 percent from a year ago. At the current sales rate the report projects there is a 10.9 month inventory of new homes available.
Considered together, the three reports give further credence to the belief that the nation’s real estate marketplace will not be making a sudden turnaround of fortune anytime soon. And in fact things may have to get worse before they get better.
In the meantime this all portends well for would be homebuyers as well as investors looking for potential bargains in real estate around the country.